My thoughts on the (Japanese) anime market saturation

Today, we are seeing a lot more Japanese anime TV series and movies being produced. A decade ago, I think each season (quarter) saw around 30 anime TV series. That number has since more than doubled, with over 60 series per season and going to around 300 series each year.

 

This is in spite of a shrinking population (and therefore, work force and market) in Japan. The main reason is that the market for anime has expanded, and streaming services allow Japanese anime to be easily distributed to viewers outside Japan. Better connectivity also allows Japanese production studios to contract people outside Japan to work on their anime works, whether these people are freelancers outside Japan, or entire production studios (usually in China, South Korea, and various countries in Southeast Asia). Globalization has expanded the market and available work force even though the domestic situation is in decline.

In the long term, though, I see such an approach leading to an overall decline for Japanese anime.

This anime boom now in Japan means that all the major publishers are trying to grab their share, as much as they can, as fast as they can. When profits relied on advertising and merchandise sales, the goal was to produce anime that people want to watch, that people want to rewatch, that people want to talk about and spend money on. The goal was, in short, to gain fans. However, today, the main source of income from anime comes from the sale of streaming rights. It doesn't matter anymore if anyone actually watches the anime (which helps to improve advertising income) or become fans and buy merchandise. All they need to do is be able to sell the anime's rights to a streaming service. Whether anyone watches it or not doesn't matter to the publishers; that's a problem for the streaming service.

What this means is that, if anything can be turned into an anime, it will be turned into an anime, whether there is a significant demand/audience for it. It is why we keep seeing a flood of light novels being adapted into anime, with each light novel being more or less similar to the other one. Will an anime adaptation help book sales for the publishers? Maybe. But probably not significantly. Will the production committee earn profits from merchandise sales? Yes, but again, probably insignificant. What is significant is the money that comes from streaming services. Because of the anime boom and tough competition, streaming services are grabbing series when they can; they don't want to be the only service that does not have a series should that series prove to become popular. Streaming services don't know if the goose will lay a golden egg, but they want to be at that table in case it does.

Which means that, for the time being, anime production committees will be able to earn money just by making more anime series for sale to streaming services. The influx of money also means that more and more production studios will be created to handle the increase in demand for new adaptations. If animators and other creators in Japan cannot handle the volume of work, a part of that work will be outsourced to freelancers and studios in other countries. For now, the money is there to be earned.

 

But streaming services also face tough competition, and buying streaming rights and producing their own original stuff cost money. With costs going up, and new subscribers not growing as fast due to intense competition, there will be a point when streaming services will need to start choosing the series that they pick up. This is further compounded by anime series having a range of quality. Because of the 300+ series available in a year, subscribers are not going to be able to watch them all. When they watch enough mediocre anime series in a row, they may lose their interest in anime. Some of them may even end their subscriptions. Loss of subscribers means less money for streaming services to spend on acquiring streaming rights. They will need to start being picky.

 

When the money starts falling, production committees will start seeing losses. Because it costs money to make those 60 series each season. This is a cost that, if not recovered through sales, becomes a loss. But when losses start, it is not the big publishers that close. No, the publishers will continue to launch production committees to make anime. But they will make less anime. Which means all those production studios will be fighting for a smaller pie. And some of them will start to close due to a lack of revenue. People who entered the industry during its boom will start to lose their jobs. Good animators may no longer be earning enough to sustain their living, and end up leaving the industry altogether for another job. Especially freelancers who work for several production studios, only to find half of these studios closing over a short period of time.

The result is an overall shrinking of the industry that may happen quite rapidly. The big companies at the top may feel a pinch, but it is the animators and other creators working day and night to support the industry that will end up suffering. When anime revenue falls, it is not the director or general manager in charge of anime at publishers that lose their jobs; the anime department is the one to feel the axe. The production studios are the ones that lose income. The animators and other creators are the ones that lose their livelihoods. And fans will not see the sequels to their beloved series (or may have to wait a decade or two).

There is a way to avoid this. If the big companies at the top can take a more moderate and balanced approach now, to start scaling down on trying to adapt every single light novel and manga out there, then we have a chance for the industry to become sustainable in the long term. But then, this approach relies on companies reining in corporate greed. That's not really going to happen. Sigh.

Calligraphy draft using poems mentioned in The Garden of Words 言の葉の庭

In The Garden of Words (言の葉の庭), two poems from Manyoshu were mentioned. I really like this movie, and always wanted to write my own pieces using these two poems. Finally, I got down to that.

鳴る神の 少し響みて さし曇り 雨も降らぬか きみを留めむ
なるかみの すこしとよみて さしくもり あめもふらぬか きみをとどめむ

雷神 小動 刺雲 雨零耶 君将留
A faint clap of thunder,
Clouds fill the sky,
Perhaps it will rain,
Will that keep you here?

 

鳴る神の 少し響みて 降らずとも 吾は留まらむ 妹し留めば
なるかみの すこしとよみて ふらずとも われはとまらん いもしとどめば

雷神 小動 雖不零 吾将留 妹留者

A faint clap of thunder,
Even if there is no rain,
I will stay here,
If you but ask.

 

I think the layout and overall size could be better if I spent a bit more time on them. I am definitely going to redo them. But for now, these would do.

 

I actually tried a draft using 半切 paper too. This would work if I put them side by side, aka on a piece of 全紙 paper, with the "question" poem higher and the "answer" poem lower.

Excerpt of Cao Cao's 短歌行

I used an excerpt of Cao Cao's 短歌行 for the piece that I submitted for an exhibition (Mainichi Shodo Exhibition), on 二六尺 (60cm x 180cm) paper. Given that another exhibition had a deadline around the same time, I thought I would just use the same phrase, but write it on a different paper size (aka a different layout), using 全紙 (69cm x 138cm) size paper. However, in the end, I decided to use a different phrase for this other exhibition (Sankei International "Sho" Exhibition), writing an excerpt from Li Qingzhao's 武陵春 instead.

Still, I did quite a bit of practice using the excerpt of Cao Cao's 短歌行 on 全紙 paper, so I thought I would share two examples.

对酒当歌，人生几何！
譬如朝露，去日苦多。
慨当以慷，忧思难忘。
何以解忧？唯有杜康。

Next is to think about what to write for the next few months, before I start preparing for the exhibition at the end of the year.

Two down, hurray!

Finally finished my piece for submission to the other exhibition. This one is known as 産経国際書展 or Sankei International "Sho" Exhibition. It is another major calligraphy exhibition in Japan, with the main exhibition being in Tokyo plus several regional exhibitions too.

I can't share the piece I am submitting here, but if it gets chosen, I will share it as a separate post in August (when the exhibition takes place). But here is a glimpse of one of the practice pieces.

And here is the rubbish generated in two weeks. Actually, there is a lot more rubbish, but I kept the candidates out of the trash, for now. So that's about 100 sheets for the trash.

And here are the keepsakes, which I keep because I wrote them a while ago, exploring how different combinations of inks, brushes, and papers.

 

I also make it a practice to keep the "finalists" too.

 

The next exhibition will be my calligraphy association's own internal exhibition at the end of the year. I still haven't decided what to write yet, but there are a few candidates in mind already. Meanwhile, for the next few months, I will probably be exploring different styles.

Comparing calligraphy seal pastes (part 2)

Usually, the seal pastes used in calligraphy works are vermilion or red. See this comparison for the different shades available. However, there are also other colours being sold, and they have their own uses.

First, if you are using white paper, or something of a similar light hue, you usually use red or vermilion seal paste. There is also brownish seal paste (usually called 仿古 or 古色) which works if you are trying to imitate something old. If you are using red paper, then you would use white or gold seal paste (gold usually for festive stuff). There are also other colours that can be used with coloured paper: yellow, silver, purple, and black. You choose the colour that contrasts well with the paper.

From left to right, white, yellow, and gold seal pastes. The yellow seal paste didn't turn out very well on the red paper.

Certain colours have special meanings, though, and should be used with discretion.

Pink is for love letters. Don't use pink seal paste unless you mean it.

Blue and green are to show that the writer is in mourning. Do not use them unless someone just passed away in the family.

However, in Taiwan, blue seal paste is also used on official documents. In such cases, the use of blue for work is acceptable, and those in mourning would use green seal paste instead.

 

Update 29 April 2024: I got some blue seal paste, and tested it on yellow paper since it is really inauspicious to use blue on white paper.

 

Comparing calligraphy seal pastes (part 1)

舟を編む (Fune wo Amu) NHK TV series (2024)

 

舟を編む (Fune wo Amu, English title The Great Passage) is a novel about a team of people making a dictionary. It was adapted into a live-action movie in 2013, and a TV anime series in 2016. In 2024, NHK made a live-action TV series that focused on the later part of the story, after Kishibe Midori joined the team.

 

While the story is about making a dictionary, it is actually about the importance of words. How words have meanings, how words help us to express what we are thinking. It is about why we create words: we create words because we want to pass something on. It is words that tie us together.

As someone who works with words, works based on words interest me. This story is no different. Having watched both the 2013 movie and 2016 anime, I was quite interested in this NHK series even before it started airing. NHK wasn't really known for making great drama series in the past, but in recent years, NHK seems to have taken a shift in policy and approach to try and appeal to younger viewers. I was curious how they would adapt this story today's audience.

And having finished watching the final episode today, I must say I was really impressed. By focusing on the second half of the story, after Kishibe Midori joined the team, this drama series was able to tell a story that relates to people who use smartphones and online search more than flipping through thick dictionaries. The final episode was even set mainly in 2020 and portrayed life under the COVID-19 pandemic. Its portrayal of what words are for, how we need to be careful in choosing words, and all those other aspects of words brought tears to my eyes many many times. I would never have expected I would cry while watching a TV drama about people making dictionaries. But that was what happened over the past few months, while watching this series.

I highly recommend this show to everyone. It will change the way you think about the words you use when talking to people.

Links:

舟を編む The Great Passage Wikipedia entry

The Great Passage (NHK TV drama)

A bit about the loss of two JMSDF SH-60K helicopters during night ASW training

Something a bit more serious.

On Saturday night, two JMSDF SH-60K helicopters crashed at sea during a night ASW training exercise. The exercise involved three helicopters (including the two helicopters that crashed), seven ships, and one submarine. At around 22:38 local time, radio contact was lost with one of the helicopters, followed by picking up the emergency location beacon of that helicopter. Radio contact was lost with the other helicopter at 23:04.

2 Japanese navy helicopters crash in the Pacific Ocean during training, leaving 1 dead and 7 missing

2 Japan SDF choppers crash during drill leaving 1 dead, 7 missing

Search and rescue efforts recovered one of the crew (found dead), with seven still missing. The helicopters each carried one pilot, one co-pilot, and two other aircrew. The flight recorders for both helicopters have been found, in close proximity to each other, which led to the assumption that they had collided. Other helicopter parts have also been found.

First, the "lost radio contact" timings were about 30 minutes apart, so readers not familiar with naval operations would wonder why the helicopters could have collided. This is because helicopters do not necessary keep talking to their mother ships. In tactical operations, radio silence is usually maintained because radio communications can be picked up by the enemy, and those radio waves can be used to pinpoint your location. The nature of anti-submarine warfare (ASW) also means that helicopters may need to hover close to the sea surface at times (when dipping their sonars). The curvature of the earth then makes them drop out of radar detection and line-of-sight communications (like UHF). What happens then is that, for safety, helicopters have to check in with their mother ships at certain time intervals. When a helicopter fails to check in a certain number of times, it triggers certain responses as it means the helicopter met with some issue. This means that the second helicopter probably collided with the first, and when it failed to check in with its mother ship, the mother ship declared that it had lost radio contact at 23:04 local time.

I also want to mention how challenging night training at sea can be. Having conducted many many night training exercises at sea, the low level of light (sometimes zero if there is no moonlight) makes it very hard to pick up things around you visually. This is also why we conduct night training, so that people learn how to be effective lookouts at night, how to orientate themselves in low light, and how to operate effectively even when there is little (or no) light. For a ship operating in two dimensions, it is challenging enough. I had my own share of near misses at sea. For aircraft operating in three dimensions, it becomes even more challenging. This is why there are so many rules in place to prevent mutual interference between units (air or sea) in the same area, so that they don't interfere with each other, or endanger each other. One of the most basic rule is separation, either vertical or horizontal. First, you avoid having two aircraft in the same area. That's lateral (horizontal) separation. If they really need to operate in the same area, then you separate them by height (vertical). Each aircraft would be assigned a height block to operate within, and there is a buffer between height blocks as an added safety measure.

Even with all these safety rules in place, accidents still happen. Sometimes, it was because the rules in place were not stringent enough, and then we revise those rules to prevent future accidents. Sometimes, it is due to other aggravating factors (such as fog, bad weather, etc.) that made an already-challenging situation into something much more impossible. It could also be hardware issues (for example, an altimeter failure can cause the pilot to fly in the wrong height block). That is why accidents are investigated to understand their root cause(s). Procedures and rules are then revised to prevent future occurrences.

For the accident this time, I hope they eventually discover the root cause and make the necessary changes. Meanwhile, I pray that they find the seven missing crew members. Both are difficult tasks, since the accident happened out in open sea, with a depth of around 5,500m. Salvaging anything from the seabed is going to be a tremendous task.

Comparing calligraphy seal pastes (part 1)

I ordered some calligraphy seal paste from Taobao recently, and decided to do a comparison with the ones that I had bought, either from stores or via auction sites.

First, the pastes I bought on Taobao were from 双维 (雙維 or Shuang Wei or Shuangwei). This is a budget brand of calligraphy seal pastes, known for using long long long fibres and being a bit more sticky than other, more expensive brands. However, they are affordable and functional.

I also have pastes by 西泠 (Xiling) which is one of the leading brands in China. Other well-known brands are 苏州姜思序堂 (Suzhou Jiangsixutang), 漳州八宝 (Zhangzhou Babao), and 石泉 (Shiquan). All of them have different ways of calling their pastes, which can be confusing if you are looking for a similar colour from another brand. In this aspect, Shuangwei tries to use the names from Xiling so it is less confusing (or more, if you are trying to buy Xiling paste and end up ordering the same-named product from Shuangwei instead). (Another famous brand is from 龙泉 Longquan, but authentic Longquan calligraphy seal paste will cost a fortune, since it uses lotus silk. Needless to say, poor me does not own any such extravagant stuff. I also do not have any seal paste from 荣宝斋 Rongbaozhai, another famous brand.)

The biggest difference in price comes from the raw materials. Cinnabar is the core material for the vermilion colour of calligraphy seal paste, and the higher the cinnabar content, the more expensive it will be. Calligraphy seal paste is basically cinnabar mixed with some fibres (usually mugwort) and some type of castor oil to keep them together. The same 30g of paste can contain different compositions of these three materials depending on the brand. There is also what is called cinnabar "fat" (硃磦), which is a more yellow tint of the vermilion colour that is obtained when processing cinnabar. This "fat" is hard to obtain, accounting for like 1%, such that you need several kilograms of cinnabar to obtain maybe 30 to 60 grams of cinnabar "fat". So seal pastes that use more of this "fat" (which you can see from the colour) will cost more.

This is an example of their colours, placed with each other for comparison. For the photos, I took the photos, then adjusted various settings so that the colours of the seal pastes were as close as I could to what I saw with my eyes. Ignore the colour of the paper background as I did not care about getting its colour correct.

From 漳州八宝印泥:
贡品 (rank 3 out of 7 quality ranks from Zhangzhou Babao)
一级贡品 (rank 2)
特级贡品 (best quality from Zhangzhou Babao, aka rank 1)

From 上海西泠印泥:
古色 (a brownish colour mimicking seal paste from older times)
美丽 (a darker red)
青花光明硃砂 (the usual vermilion colour of cinnabar)
箭镞 (more yellowish tint)
镜面朱砂 (a higher quality of vermilion colour with a slightly brighter tint)

From 苏州姜思序堂:
硃磦 (made using cinnabar "fat")

From 石泉印泥:
精制美丽 (a darker red)

From 双维印尼:
堆朱 (common seal paste for everyday use)
朱磦 (vermilion with yellow tint)
黄磦 (yellowish seal paste; the colour is man-made using sulphur and mercury)
仿古 (a brownish colour mimicking seal paste from older times)

And 正红印泥 (maybe from 一得阁; this has a bright vermilion colour).

 

Good paste turns black when heated and reverts to vermilion when cooled. Apparently, pastes that contain higher amounts of cinnabar changes colour faster than those with less. I also wanted to test this, but I have not been able to find time to do this properly, so it will need to wait for now.

Comparing calligraphy seal pastes (part 2)

One down, one more to go

I sent out my submission for one of the upcoming exhibitions today (Mainichi Shodo Exhibition). This is a nationwide exhibition in Japan, with a rejection rate of around 50%. It is the first time I am submitting for this and I really have no confidence. But I promised my teacher that I would try for this, so here I am, after months of practising and preparing.

 

The actual deadline is next month, but I am submitting through my calligraphy association (they help to submit in bulk plus handle other admin stuff so it helps for a newbie like me) and the association has set the deadline as next week. So I thought I would just mail out my submission today so that I can meet the deadline.

Just an example, this is the amount of trash generated from about 2 weeks of practice. Actually, there should be more, but I always keep some used paper around in case I need to soak up ink or something. I also kept some of the better candidates as a memento, which I will probably throw away sometime in the future...

Keeping my fingers crossed. 🤞

Wish me luck! 🙏

欲語涙先流 calligraphy piece

The piece I am submitting for the other exhibition (deadline in May) will be based on the poem 武陵春 by 李清照 Li Qingzhao. I am still practising for this other piece. Here is a piece that uses the phrase 欲語涙先流 from this poem.

譬如朝露 calligraphy piece

Here's some more pieces using the phrase 譬如朝露 from Cao Cao's 短歌行 poem, because I needed to test out some paper I got from Yahoo Auctions.

The deadline for one of the exhibitions is next week, and I have already written a few candidates. The final step is to select the one that I will actually submit. Wish me luck!

對酒當歌 piece

I have been preparing two pieces that I hope to submit for two upcoming exhibitions, practising about 2 hours almost every night for the past 3 months.

Here's an excerpt of one of the pieces, which contains the phrase 對酒當歌 from Cao Cao's 短歌行 poem. I wrote them because I had some paper I wanted to test out.

Full bloom

The cherry blossoms started blooming a bit late this year due to the unusual weather. It was hotter than usual in February and everyone was expecting the cherry blossoms to bloom early, but then, March suddenly turned cold again, and in the end, the cherry blossoms only started to bloom toward the end of March.

Still, the weather turned quite warm for this season, which meant that it took less time to reach full bloom.

 

The birds also came out to enjoy.

 

Some other flowers were blooming too. Truly, spring is here.

My violets are in full bloom too!

Legend of the Red Dragon aka LORD (BBS door game)

OMG! I went to visit my favorite blog talking about old CRPGs, and came upon this! Legend of the Red Dragon, back from the good old days of BBS door games. I can't remember the countless hours I spent playing it back in the 1990s, when I was calling into BBSs.

It seems you can play a rewrite of the original game today, via your browser (instead of calling into a BBS).

https://legendreddragon.net/Rewrite

Oh, the good old days... nostalgia can be addicting.

Sambar deer hair (山馬毫) calligraphy brushes

In 2008, the sambar deer was listed as a vulnerable species on the IUCN Red List. This affected the use of its hair for calligraphy brushes, which used to be sold with names bearing the characters 山馬 in some form. Sambar deer hair is very rigid, more rigid than horse and weasel hair, but maybe less than boar hair.

I do have a few of such calligraphy brushes made from sambar deer hair. As usual, a 500 yen coin is there for size comparison.

From right to left:

The rightmost brush with a black handle was bought at a calligraphy supplies store in Singapore many many years ago. The brush portion is 55mm long with a diameter of 12mm. It served me well when I was writing pieces on 半紙 size paper (24.3x33.4cm).

The middle three brushes were given to me by a relative. The unused one, second from the right, has a brush portion that is 45mm long with a diameter of 7mm.

 

The third one from the right has a brush portion that is 45mm long but a diameter of 8mm. I sometimes use this brush to sign calligraphy works, especially when the work is written with a large soft goat hair brush (such as this, these, and this).

 

The fourth brush from the right (or third from the left) has a brush portion that is 60mm long with a diameter of 11mm. I also use it for writing on 半紙 size paper.

Meanwhile, the two brushes on the left were bought recently when a calligraphy supplies store was clearing stock. The leftmost brush has a brush portion that is 52mm long with a diameter of 7mm, while the second one from the left has a brush portion that is 34mm long with a diameter of 5mm. I found them at a very discounted price so I thought I would get them in case I ever need something like them in the future.